Time for Aircraft industry to double down on carbon emission reduction

In the past 40 years the number of passengers has risen tenfold and cargo volumes have grown fourteenfold, despite repeated shocks from recessions, terrorism and other factors. This expansion is three times greater than the growth of the world’s economies in the corresponding period and it has been driven by two main factors: the rise of the middle class and the decrease in the average price per ticket. the success comes at a price – emissions from international aviation grew by over 75% between 1990 and 2012. Today the aviation industry produces around 2% of all human-induces carbon dioxide emission, which represents 12% of the emissions from all transports sources.

Despite the increasing impact of this industry on the environment, it has managed to pass under the radar until recently. In the Paris climate agreement, the first truly international climate change deal, no measures were mentioned to limit the pollution from planes. In the last few years the situation has changed drastically thanks to the action of the teen climate activist Greta Thumberg, advocating a more mindful use of the different means of transports. The number of people flying between German cities dropped 12% in November from a year earlier, and the same trend was observed in Sweden as well, where the train company reported that the number of business passengers rose 12% in the first three months of this year.

The Covid health crisis is likely to increase even further the awareness of the public for eco friendly way of transport. In this context it is essential for the aircraft industry to double down on carbon emission reduction.

With that said it is important to notice that the industry has done considerable efforts to become more fuel efficient: fuel burn per passenger-kilometer has dropped by half since 1990. Important investment in R&D has allowed to conceive and commercialize more eco friendly engines and aircraft manufacturers like Airbus have proposed innovative design solutions such as the “winglets” -upturned wingtip extensions that save up to 3.5% fuel by reducing drag.

Incremental innovation has allowed therefore to limit the increase of carbon emission generated by airline industry but today there is the need for a stronger action. This traditional conservative industry needs to reinvent itself proposing innovative solutions to answer the climate challenge.

Carbon offsetting can help serve as a bridge while the industry organizes itself for more decisive actions, like for instance, the wider acceptance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Compared with normal fossil kerosene, SAF means a reduction up to 100 percent in carbon emission. Its use is today very limited – only 5% of the total fuel consumption is SAV – and this is mainly due to a higher price and a supply chain that is not capable to meet the expectation of the airlines. With that said this could be seen as a classic chicken or the egg problem. If Airlines commit to purchase more SAF that its price will inevitably decrease and the supply chain will become more efficient. Taxes on carbon emission could be another driver pushing airlines companies to use the more eco-friendly SAF.

Another idea that needs to be explored is related to new air traffic management technologies to better regulates to traffic. Today this task is performed manually by air traffic controllers that need to handle several airplanes in the process of landing or take-off. Thanks to the digitalisations of the entire process, it would be possible to optimize fuel consumption and to experiment futuristic solutions where several airplanes, flying together in a V shape formation, mimic the nature taking profit of the upwash of one of the lead aircraft’s wakes.

Despite what said above, a full electric aircraft will be the perfect solution for solving the carbon emission problem. Electrification is a reality well known today in the car industry but for a series of important technical challenges not yet implemented in the airline industry. The biggest limit is represented by the lower energy density of batteries compared to fuels – 50 kilograms of battery weight (with today’s technology) to replace one kilogram of kerosene. Therefore to perform a standard flight with an Airbus A320 from Paris to Rome, there will be no space for passengers since the plane would need to be filled with batteries to reach the destination. With that said in the last couple of years important investments have been done to improve the technology of the batteries and some companies are starting to propose the first full electric solutions for commercial flights. Lilium, a German start-up is probably the actor that has the most advanced solution, proposing a vertical take-off and landing electrically powered personal air vehicle which should be fully operational by 2025. They will offer a Uber-like experience which will be particularly interesting for short flights (300km range). This first step towards electric airplanes could be a catalyst for additional investments on the core technologies needed for additional performance breakthroughs and at the same time could help the passengers to get used to a new way of flight.

It is quite common these days to hear or read that the secret to survive in this challenging situation is to turn the crisis into opportunities. This is particularly true for the aircraft industry that has been hit by the covid and is struggling to find a way out from this situation. A more eco-friendly business model might be a way to regain passengers’ trust and to become more resilient.

Viviane Lazard Sobral

Chris Holcroft

Francisco Sanchez Chavez

Claudio Montebello