By Kadambari Uthayasankar, Rishita Chennupati, Swati Sharma
Development of Northern Sea Route with the melting Arctic ice
Watch the trailer for Bernice Notenboom’s film Sea Blind:
Connecting the Atlantic and the pacific, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a maritime route through the Arctic along the northern coast of the Eurasian landmass, principally located off the coast of northern Siberia. The Northern Sea route is 37% shorter, in shipping distance, than the Southern Route via the Suez Canal. Russia stands to gain considerable economic advantage from the development and exploitation of the NSR – the shortest shipping route between Europe and East Asian ports, as well as important domestic route connecting the farthest parts of the country.
Historically, the passage has been inaccessible due to sea ice. As the Arctic ice continues to melt due to global warming, the route’s navigational window today is open year-round. This is fueling Russia’s expectation to develop NSR into a vibrant shipping route, rivalling some of the world’s most important trade routes by 2030. The Russian government established the Northern Sea Route Administration (NSRA) to organize navigation, ensure navigational safety and protect marine environment in the NSR waters.
Why is Russia interested in developing the Northern Sea Route?
For centuries, the Arctic has had special significance for Russia – as a frontier for explorers, a source of riches from oil to precious minerals, and a security buffer for a nation that frequently feared encirclement.
According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for oil and gas will increase by more than 35% by 2035. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates 13% of global oil and natural gas, and 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is in the Arctic. East Asian countries’ interest in NSR is two pronged – meet their resource deficit through the Arctic’s resource extraction and reduce shipping time from east to west by 40%. This interest translates into long term foreign investments, substantially boosting the Russian economy. Volatility in the middle east, piracy concerns in the Horn of Africa also make NSR a lucrative alternative sea route.
Russia’s interest in a blockade-free shipping route through the NSR dates back to WWI and the Cold War era. Current geopolitical and economic trends are acting as powerful stimulants for a renewed focus on developing NSR to transport Russian natural resources to western and eastern markets without restrictions. Part of the allure in NSR is also connected with strategic military control of its key resource bases in the far North.
Examining the impact of developing NSR on humans and environment:
Ships using bunker fuel or HFO generate 8 % to 13% of the black carbon found in the Arctic. Black carbon is a key contributor to climate change and more potent than carbon dioxide. Black carbon deposits on arctic ice accelerates the melt.
Maritime traffic and drilling in the Arctic could cause oil spills and fracture the Arctic’s already tenuous ecosystems. Toxic substances and pollutants have a far greater impact in the arctic ice than at other latitudes because they degrade very slowly and accelerate ice melting. Even a minor spill can have disastrous consequences. Maritime traffic and the ensuing pollution could disrupt the natural habitat of Arctic animals causing whale strikes, walrus deaths, etc.
The NSRA is planning to open LNG ports of varying sizes to support operations in the NSR. This can alter the fortunes of several towns along the Russian coast by providing jobs, infrastructure and services for members of these communities. In addition, the companies involved in the development also often provide wider support for the local communities, such as investment in schools, leisure and other community facilities.
The Russian Arctic Zone is home to 2 million people belonging to 41 indigenous ethnic groups. While the development of NSR and its operation can improve their quality of life and economic opportunities, industrialization is incompatible with their traditional way of living. The industrial and economic changes are altering perceptions and realities in these communities.
Sustainable policies to reduce environmental footprint and minimize disruption
The surge in demand for natural resources will likely outweigh the initial investment costs, making the extraction of Arctic resources inevitable. It is imperative that Russia and NSRA understand the environmental costs involved and strive to minimize environmental damage through long-term sustainable development plans. Although the NSRA has adopted legislation based on the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea, 1982 and the Polar Code, its regulatory framework is nowhere close to solving the environmental challenges
Oil companies currently lack comprehensive response plans to deal with an oil spills and other emergencies in the Arctic, especially in the winter. However, having a technically and financially reliable Oil Spill Contingency Plan, Search and Rescue centers (SAR), and emergency response infrastructure can help mitigate potential disasters.
NSRA can limit the pollution in Arctic by banning ships using bunker fuel and HFOs – major cause of black carbon emissions. It should also adapt technologies to transport and use cleaner fuel like LNG, that can preclude oil spills. Slow streaming of ships at 15 to 16 knots can prevent damage to Arctic fauna in the NSR water area, by giving them time to get away from the ships.
Substantial investment is needed to improve NSR’s navigational and communication capabilities – extensive hydrographic surveys to update navigational charts, remote sensing capabilities to detect drifting sea ice, real-time information on navigational routes, and vessel traffic monitoring and reporting.
It is important that the Russian government and NSAR work with the Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North (RAIPON) to develops policies that maintain a balance between industrial development and its influence on the local population, safeguarding the heritage and interests of the indigenous population.
Can we control the future of climate change?
Climate change is irreversible, but it does not mean it’s unavoidable. We can control the future trajectory of climate change by better planning and policies, and social and environmental responsibilities. What is the trade-off? How to spread the cost of such sustainable shipping practices without a steep impact on corporate profits? How to maintain the knife edge balance between heavy corporate investments and environmental sustainability? These are some of the ongoing questions that we need to revisit and revise our answers to, from time-to-time.
Sources:
https://ig.ft.com/russian-arctic/?mhq5j=e3
http://arctic.blogs.panda.org/default/developing-the-northern-sea-route/
https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2014/12/22/the-northern-sea-route-the-new-suez-canal/
http://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/future-development-of-the-northern-sea-route
http://www.husdal.com/2011/05/22/the-final-frontier-the-northern-sea-route/
http://www.discoveringthearctic.org.uk/1_northwest_northeast_passages.html
https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/03/17/turning-the-lens-on-arctic-shippings-new-era
http://www.uarctic.org/media/857300/arctic_eng.pdf