CHOCOLATE AS PREY: Effects of climate change on chocolate
As the danger of climate change continues to draw nearer, its effects for the cacao industry will be particularly pronounced in West Africa where more than half the world’s cocoa beans come from. The cacao beans that chocolate is made from are grown on trees that live in rainforest conditions, near the equator with rich soil content, uniform climate and with sufficient wind protection. Climate change can upset this delicate balance required for optimal growth and can put further pressure on existing inefficiencies in the industry. This will worsen the problem and complicate things for the industry and world-wide demand.
Changing weather patterns are expected to cause frequent droughts, variable rain and high temperatures, that will affect the crop and the wider ecosystems required to nourish cacao beans. As a result, cacao quality and yields can decrease, leading to further mismanagement of scarce resources such as water and forest cover, harming the environment and trapping the industry in a vicious cycle.
CHOCOLATE AS PREDATOR: History of Cocoa and Deforestation
Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide, after fossil fuel combustion, making it one of the main contributors to climate change. Global forest loss caused by cocoa production was roughly 2-3 million hectares from 1988 to 2008 (approximately 1% of total forest loss). But cocoa is spreading, and as it does, it threatens new forests.
“From 2000 to 2014, the global production of cocoa beans increased by 32 per cent – from 3.4 to 4.5 million tonnes – while the land-use footprint of cocoa plantations grew by 37 per cent – from 7.6 to 10.4 million hectares.” Cocoa production has been growing from 2007 in countries like Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, the Dominican Republic, Liberia, Uganda, Colombia, Sierra Leone, likely stressing already vulnerable forests there.
85% forest cover destroyed in Ivory Coast between 1990 and 2015
With demand for chocolate increasing, the chocolate industry risks aggressively expanding to rainforest nations around the world, in many places exporting the same bad practices that contributed to the near-total destruction of West Africa’s forests. While it is possible to move the production of cocoa to more temperate regions, this may result in declining quality of cocoa beans and mediocre chocolate. Furthermore, most of these regions are currently protected to preserve wildlife and forest cover, greatly reducing the area available for cocoa farming in the future.
WHAT IS THE INDUSTRY DOING?
In 2017, 24 leading chocolate companies joined the governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast to commit to no new deforestation, reforestation, and traceability in West Africa, of which a handful of companies, namely Cargill, Mars, Olam International, Hershey’s and Barry Callebaut, made global commitment to deforestation-free cocoa by 2025-2030.
The companies claim to do this by focusing on productivity of the cocoa lands and investing more in R&D to find other crop substitutes to lower dependency on cocoa. Efforts are being made to grow cocoa through agroforestry and new cocoa pods have evolved to grow within shadows of bio diverse rainforest canopy. However, mass scale production of cocoa through these methods is still decades away.
Programs such as Cocoa Horizon, Cocoa Life, and Protect our Planet have also been introduced to achieve 100% transparency in their supply chain, educate and train farmers on best agriculture practices, and provide a fairer share of profits to cocoa farmers. Ivorian farmers currently make $0.50/day with dire poverty defined at $1.50/day and poverty defined at $2.00/day.
However, these companies and governments still have much to do. It was recently reported that 40% of Ivory Coast cocoa is still coming illegally from protected forests despite pledges made by chocolate companies and that cocoa farmers continue to cut down trees to desperately increase output. Ivorian and Ghanaian governments, neither of whom have strict regulation in place, continue to turn a blind eye as their economies rely heavily on cocoa.
For now, the damage to the rainforest cover continues and it remains to be seen how much longer West Africa can manage to be the world leader in cocoa production. The industry needs major innovation to continue satisfying world’s sweet demand.
THE FUTURE: SWEET or BITTER?
Most of the world’s chocolate comes from regions roughly 20 degrees north and south of the equator, where the heat and humidity stay relatively constant throughout the year. A WEF report has indicated that increasing temperatures will result in most of these regions becoming unsuitable for cocoa plantation by 2040. While for most of us a life without chocolate is difficult to imagine, cocoa as we know it may disappear in the next 20 years.
Effects of changing climate conditions can spill over to logistical operations. Higher temperatures during shipping and transporting chocolate will require innovative refrigeration solutions leading to an increase in costs and investments for companies in the chocolate industry. This higher cost will ultimately be passed down to the consumer, who will be forced to pay much higher price for chocolate, making it a luxury. A more sustainable, long term solution to this problem would be to develop high yield genetically modified cocoa that can grow in hot and dry climatic conditions and is resistant to thermal degradation.
Another trend that may affect the chocolate industry is a growing consumer focus on leading a healthier lifestyle and awareness about the effects of sugar. This has led to a sharp increase in demand for dark chocolates, especially in developed markets. As governments increase their focus on lifestyle problems such as diabetes and obesity through nutritional interventions, the chocolate industry can expect to see stricter regulations around the fat and sugar content of their products. Product innovations, such as introduction of functional ingredients (fibers, antioxidants, and micronutrients) are essential to ensuring the industry’s popularity with millennials.
Therefore, while one can say that the future of chocolate looks dark, it may necessarily not be a bad thing.
References:
- https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation-and-forest-degradation
- http://www.mightyearth.org/kissed-by-deforestation/
- http://csr-asia.com/newsletter-climate-change-and-chocolate
- https://www.fooddive.com/news/report-global-warming-may-melt-chocolate-industry/529200/
- https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-chocolate
- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/07/africa-cocoa-industry-failing-deforestation-pledge-campaigners
- https://www.cargill.com/doc/1432132293626/protect-our-planet-infographic.pdf
- https://www.confectionerynews.com/Article/2017/09/27/Cocoa-deforestation-What-can-the-chocolate-industry-really-do
Perhaps does the solution come from developing Ghana and Ivory Coast faster, so that their economies diversify and they can take firmer stands against the wrongdoings in the chocolate industry.
This problem is present in different forms all over the world (think poor countries with large oil resources being exploited by western conglomerates).
I know it is easier said than done, but it’s what will make a difference in the end.
Agreed, local government collaboration is much needed to solve this mess. For now, they are not able to see beyond cocoa industry and there is only so much that can be done without government support and infrastructure. I believe once Brazil, Ecuador and other countries start catching up on best practices and mass cocoa production, it’d perhaps lead to some major change in West Africa. But it’s all conjecture in the end.
Interesting read especially as a chocolate addict. I think this concern extends to some of the other commodities to be destroyed by climate change.
I remember reading somewhere that cacao beans are much more durable than most of the other commodities. Totes playing the devil’s advocate but wonder if changing climate conditions globally would help us to grow cacao some of the parts of the locations?
I like how this post deals with this ascending issue from the prey and predator’s viewpoint to help readers avoid one-side perspective. To address main concerns we have, we can consider both demand and supply side. From demand side, the leading chocolate companies can develop some new types of chocolate using less cocoa and more other ingredients such as fibers, fruits and protein, indirectly reducing the required quantity of cocoa. From supply side, leading chocolate companies, especially those form the league, can lobby to the government and legislate restrictions against those violators. Regarding those violators, they can provide some technology assistance so that they can harvest cocoa more efficiently and become more profitably, reducing the incentives of going illegal. Also, they can invest in technology that allows lab-planted cocoa as substitutes and work with the academics to accelerate the scalability.
Thanks a lot for such an amazing post! As dark chocolate lover, it was very interesting to look at this issue from a prey and a predator perspective. I would say that this same issue applies to most of the goods that we usually consume. Food should not cost the Earth and the societal growth should not come at the expense of contributing to deforestation, which has been always the trend. I envision a future in which traditional crop growing techniques will be completely regulated and humans will consume mostly lab-grown food that will provide us with the required nutrients and proteins without destroying our planet.
Thank you for this article! I had no idea about the deforestation linked to cocoa and chocolate. Indeed future alternative solutions should be found to replace cocoa and avoid deforestation. Maybe a new invention such as the impossible burger is the solution!
Thanks guys for the interesting post, looking at the industry from multiple perspectives! Crazy to see the image on Ivory coast and the deforestation… One thing that makes me wonder though is whether we would really solve some of these issues by “fixing” chocolate/cacao, or whether it would just be the next industry in line that would take over? Perhaps there is a way to address the deforestation problem at its (literal) roots?
As a chocolate lover, this is hard to read. I can’t imagine consuming less chocolate! The two-fold assault on chocolate production from the overheating of traditional cocoa growing geographies due to global warming and the deforestation of these areas presents a challenge to the global economy as well. An additional concern is the farming populations, particularly women, who rarely own the rights to the land on which they work. I would be curious to know what technological innovations can improve efficiency in cocoa growing regions and among chocolate companies to reduce the dependency on a few, over-harvested regions.
Thank you for this amazing post–really appreciate the information and insight (as well as engaging structure and writing!)
The chocolate problem in a way seems similar to the growing demand for “luxury” types of fish discussed in the Finless Foods post. Why should the world continue to provide luxury goods like chocolate at price that’s incredibly low because the externalities of poverty and destruction aren’t reflected in it?
If somehow regulation could shift demand so that chocolate could be sustainably sourced as an expensive hyper-luxury good, would the economics still be able to support West Africa for long enough that the cacao-producing countries could still grow while also diversifying their economies?